China October NEV retail beats CPCA forecast by 78,000, reaching 1.148 million

China's retail sales of passenger new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 1.148 million in October 2026, according to preliminary data the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) released on November 4. That was up 6% from September, when retail was 1.084 million, but down 10% from a year earlier. It was also 78,000 more than the CPCA predicted on October 23, when it expected NEV retail to dip to about 1.07 million.

NEVs took a record 67.8% of retail in October, up from September's previous record of 67.0% and above the 66.9% the CPCA had forecast. In October 2025 the share was 57.2%, so it has risen by more than 10 percentage points in a year.

The wider market also beat the forecast. Total passenger car retail came to 1.693 million, up 5% from September and down 25% from October 2025. The CPCA had expected roughly 1.6 million, a 28.9% annual decline.

October broke a run of forecasts that came in too high. In July, August and September, the CPCA's NEV estimate topped actual retail by 26,000 to 35,000 cars each month, and in its October 23 preview GCEV noted that a miss of the same size would have left October near 1.04 million. Instead, actual retail ran about 7.3% above the forecast.

CPCA's NEV forecasts ran high from July to September; October's actual 1.148 million beat the 1.07 million forecast shown here (chart based on CPCA data)

Most of the surprise came in the last days of the month. Average daily retail of all passenger cars was 33,000 in the first week, 58,000 in the second, 47,000 in the third and 51,000 in the fourth, before jumping to 91,000 in the fifth week. The CPCA had expected about 49,000 and 79,000 for the last two weeks. Even the strongest week was down 22% from a year earlier.

The CPCA said the gain came from National Day auto shows, local subsidies and automakers' peak-season promotions, which together produced a relatively modest recovery. It warned that the release of demand lacks sustainability, that most NEV brands lack blockbuster models, and that there is a wide gap between outside estimates of order books and the sales companies actually make.

Gasoline cars are carrying most of the annual decline. Subtracting NEVs from total retail leaves about 545,000 conventional cars sold in October, up about 2% from September's 534,000 but down about 43% from roughly 960,000 in October 2025, when total retail was 2.242 million. The CPCA said persistently high international oil prices have kept running costs high for gasoline cars, and production of pure-fuel light vehicles fell 52% to 386,000 in the first four weeks of October.

NEVs are shrinking too, just more slowly. October was the tenth straight month of annual decline in NEV retail, although the drop narrowed from 16.7% in September to 10%. NEV retail for the first ten months reached 8.907 million, down 12%, while total passenger car retail was 15.027 million, down 22%.

Shipments are telling a different story. Automakers' NEV wholesale volume, which includes exports, rose to 1.807 million in October, up 12% from a year earlier and 8% from September, with NEVs making up 68.6% of wholesale. That is about 659,000 more NEVs shipped to dealers and export markets than sold at retail in China during the month. Wholesale for the first ten months reached 13.256 million, up 10%.

BYD led that wholesale count with 483,125 NEVs, followed by Geely at 213,165, while Tesla China fell 28.9% to 67,829 and ranked eighth.

The year-end bar remains high. The CPCA expects total passenger car retail of about 18.5 million in 2026. With 15.027 million sold through October, reaching that would take about 3.47 million in November and December, or roughly 1.74 million a month, slightly above October's 1.693 million.

For NEVs to end their streak of annual declines in November, retail would need to beat the 1.321 million sold in November 2025, about 15% more than October's total. The CPCA's November forecast, due later this month, will show whether it now expects demand to hold after a forecast that came in low.