CPCA sees October NEV retail dipping to 1.07 million, after 3 forecasts ran high

China's retail sales of passenger new energy vehicles (NEVs) will slip to about 1.07 million in October 2026, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) forecast on October 23, 2026. That is below September's 1.084 million and 16.5% lower than a year earlier, in a month that is supposed to be one of the busiest of the year.

September already showed how little the season is lifting demand. NEV retail rose 7.8% from August, when it was 1.005 million, but it was still 16.7% below September 2025. Total passenger car retail came to 1.618 million, up 5.0% from August and down 28.0% from a year earlier.

Part of that annual drop is a high base. CPCA has said a rush of buying in September 2025, before trade-in subsidies were suspended in some regions, pushed that month to a record. The fourth quarter of 2025 had its own deadline: buyers expected five percentage points more purchase tax on NEVs in 2026 once the full exemption expired, which CPCA said gave year-end shoppers more urgency.

October looks worse on every count. CPCA expects total retail of about 1.60 million, down 1.1% from September and 28.9% from October 2025, a steeper annual decline than September's. NEVs would take about 66.9% of retail, just under September's record 67.0%, which CPCA called a normal seasonal dip after a quarter-end high. The month-on-month NEV decline of about 1.3% would match October 2025, when NEV retail also fell 1.3% from September.

The share is high because the rest of the market is shrinking faster. In October 2025, NEV retail was 1.282 million with a share of 57.2%, and gasoline and other conventional cars sold about 960,000. CPCA's forecast implies NEVs will sell about 212,000 fewer cars than a year ago while their share rises by almost 10 percentage points, leaving conventional cars with roughly 530,000 sales.

NEV retail fell from 1.282 million in October 2025 to a forecast 1.07 million this October, while NEV share rose from 57.2% to 66.9% (chart based on CPCA data)

Holiday traffic did not stick. Showroom visits rose modestly over the National Day break in early October, then fell back quickly, CPCA said. Weak household income expectations and a wait-and-see mood fed by price competition among dealers have shown no fundamental improvement.

The association's weekly estimates for all passenger cars show the swing. Average daily retail was 32,000 in the holiday week, when dealers were mostly collecting orders, then jumped to about 58,000 in the second week as those orders were delivered. It fell back to about 47,000 in the third week as some limited-time offers expired.

CPCA expects about 49,000 a day in the fourth week, as cars launched in the third quarter deliver at a steady pace, and about 79,000 a day in the final week as automakers push for month-end volume. Mid-month data already pointed lower: NEV retail from October 1 to 18 was 520,000, down 13% from a year earlier and 2% below the same period in September, with NEVs taking 65.9% of retail, according to one report. Year-to-date NEV retail reached 8.278 million, down 13%.

Average daily retail peaked at about 58,000 in the second week before the final-week push CPCA expects; weeks four and five are CPCA estimates (chart based on CPCA data)

Shipments are holding up better than sales. Automakers sent 655,000 NEVs to dealers and export markets in the first 18 days of October, up 5% from a year earlier, while domestic retail fell. CPCA has said exports are propping up automakers' shipments and output, and NEV exports reached 518,000 in August alone, up 154.7%.

Automakers have little room to cut prices to close it. In a survey in early October, CPCA found most leading manufacturers cautious about fourth-quarter sales, and most had reached less than 60% of their annual targets after three quarters. That leaves a lot of volume to chase, but the government's campaign against destructive price wars and thin dealer margins have limited discounting, so most kept inventory plans steady in October.

The wider consumer data are no better. National Bureau of Statistics figures cited by CPCA show auto retail sales value fell 14.9% in January to September and 21.2% in September alone, while total retail sales of consumer goods rose 1.1%. Conventional cars are also weighed down by high oil prices, and their September retail of 534,000 was down more than 40%.

CPCA was blunt about where that leaves the market. September already had the marks of a peak season that was not a peak, it said, and October would ease slightly from September while the annual decline widened, with the market still searching for a bottom. A year ago, total October retail was 2.242 million, almost flat on 2024.

For NEVs, CPCA described demand as relatively stable. Several all-new models are due before the end of the year, but the path from unveiling and blind orders to pre-sale, launch and delivery has grown longer, so buyers of popular models wait longer for cars. CPCA said NEV sales growth has reached a plateau, while penetration will stay high.

The forecast itself comes with a caveat. CPCA's NEV estimate has been too high for three months running: 980,000 for July against actual retail of 951,000, 1.04 million for August against 1.005 million, and 1.11 million for September against 1.084 million. Those misses ranged from 26,000 to 35,000 cars, and one of the same size would leave October near 1.04 million.

NEV retail for the first nine months was already 7.758 million, down 12.8% from a year earlier. Whether a 79,000-a-day final week can deliver even CPCA's weaker October number, after three months of falling short, will be clear when the association publishes its preliminary October figures in early November.