BYD Q3 profit climbs 28% as exports hit 550,704, but falls short of forecasts

BYD (HKG: 1211) earned 10.02 billion CNY (c. $1.49 billion) in the third quarter of 2026, up 28.08% from a year earlier, its quarterly report showed on October 29, 2026. Revenue rose 13.59% to 221.49 billion CNY (c. $32.99 billion).

Exports carried the quarter. BYD shipped 180,538, 189,466 and 180,700 vehicles abroad in July, August and September, a total of 550,704. That was about 42% of the 1,323,065 new energy vehicles, passenger and commercial combined, that it sold in the quarter, by our calculation from its monthly filings, and total sales were up 18.7% from 1,114,192 a year earlier.

The profit still fell short of expectations. According to one report, the result missed estimates from three brokerages, which ranged from 11.4 billion to 12.95 billion CNY (c. $1.70 billion to $1.93 billion). Profit growth also cooled from a 30% rise in the second quarter.

The recovery through 2026 is still clear. Net profit was 4.08 billion CNY (c. $608 million) in the first quarter and 8.24 billion CNY (c. $1.23 billion) in the second, by our calculation from the first-half and first-quarter reports, so the third quarter came in 21.58% above the second. Revenue grew from a year earlier for the first time after four quarters of decline.

Q3 2026 was BYD's first quarter above 10 billion CNY this year; the Q3 2025 bar is derived from the 28.08% growth rate in the filing (chart based on BYD filings)

Much of the gain over the second quarter came from one-off items rather than the core business. Profit excluding one-off items was 8.63 billion CNY (c. $1.29 billion), up 25.25% from a year earlier but only 4.92% above the second quarter, by our calculation from the first-half and first-quarter reports. One-off items contributed 1.39 billion CNY in the third quarter, including 1.13 billion CNY of fair-value and disposal gains on financial assets and liabilities. That was about 1.37 billion CNY more than in the second quarter, when they came to about 15 million CNY, against a 1.78 billion CNY rise in net profit, so one-off items account for about 77% of the quarter-on-quarter gain, by our calculation from the same filings.

Margins also slipped. Group gross margin, which includes BYD's electronics business, fell to 18.01% from 18.88% in the second quarter, by our calculation from revenue and operating costs in the nine-month, first-half and first-quarter reports. For the first nine months, revenue was 566.30 billion CNY (c. $84.35 billion), up 0.01%, while net profit fell 4.24% to 22.34 billion CNY (c. $3.33 billion).

September shows the same split at a monthly level. BYD sold 463,561 new energy vehicles, passenger and commercial combined, in September, up 5.3% from 440,293 in August and up 16.98% from a year earlier. Exports moved the other way, down 4.6% from August to 180,700, by our calculation.

Total sales rose in each month of the quarter, while exports peaked at 189,466 in August (chart based on BYD filings)

That leaves China doing more of the lifting than it did over the summer. Sales other than exports were about 283,000 in September, up from about 251,000 in August, and about 772,000 for the quarter, by our calculation. According to one report, overseas shipments more than doubled from a year earlier and helped offset weaker sales in China.

The overseas push shows up on the balance sheet. Inventories reached 221.58 billion CNY (c. $33.00 billion) at September 30, up 60.08% from the end of 2025, and trade receivables rose 52.61% to 56.47 billion CNY (c. $8.41 billion). BYD put both down mainly to growth in its overseas car business, while bills payable to suppliers rose 251.07% to 78.86 billion CNY.

Currency moves and larger stock are costing money. Finance expenses for the first nine months were 7.37 billion CNY (c. $1.10 billion), against a gain of 2.94 billion CNY a year earlier, which BYD blamed on exchange losses. Asset impairment losses rose 67.60% to 2.71 billion CNY, mostly write-downs on a larger inventory.

Other lines are shrinking. Research and development spending fell to 36.28 billion CNY (c. $5.40 billion) in the first nine months from 43.75 billion CNY a year earlier, a drop of about 17%. Cash and trading securities together fell to about 71.72 billion CNY at September 30 from about 129.96 billion CNY at the end of 2025, by our calculation from the balance sheet.

Spending on new capacity is picking up again. Cash paid for factories, equipment and other long-term assets reached 42.68 billion CNY (c. $6.36 billion) in the third quarter, up 88.49% from the second, by our calculation from the nine-month, first-half and first-quarter cash flow statements. Operating cash flow for nine months rose 33.36% to 54.47 billion CNY, and customer prepayments rose 80.58% to 92.95 billion CNY (c. $13.84 billion).

Part of that money is going into plants abroad. BYD's base in Camaçari, Brazil, has started assembling cars, but its welding and painting shops were still in operational testing and its stamping shop still under construction as of October 26, BYD said. A plant in Subang, Indonesia, with capacity of up to 150,000 vehicles a year, opened on September 3.

At home, BYD has been building out flash charging for its newest models. It had 10,000 flash charging stations by August 28, up from 7,018 at the end of June. In a September investor relations record, BYD credited its recovering sales mainly to new models led by its flash charging range.

Competition abroad is the risk analysts point to first. Automotive analyst Felipe Munoz said other Chinese makers are now arriving in BYD's export markets, adding: "Coming quarters will be tougher for BYD." According to one report, Executive Vice President Stella Li said geopolitics poses the biggest challenge to BYD's international growth.

Europe adds another layer. According to one report, China's hybrid exports to the European Union could face new limits under an EU deal aimed at curbing hybrid imports. BYD, SAIC and Chery are among the largest exporters of hybrids to the bloc, it said. BYD is also seeking approval to double its Brazil plant's capacity to 600,000 vehicles a year.

Rival Geely Automobile (HKG: 0175) reported on the same day. Its third-quarter revenue rose 10% to 99.0 billion CNY (c. $14.75 billion), and core net profit attributable to shareholders rose 32% to 5.21 billion CNY (c. $776 million), with both figures records for the period, the company said. For the first nine months, Geely's revenue rose 13% to 272.6 billion CNY (c. $40.60 billion) and core net profit rose 41% to 14.9 billion CNY.

BYD's October sales filing, due in the first days of November, is the next check. It will show whether exports return to the 189,466 peak of August, or whether September's dip marks a plateau for the business now supplying most of BYD's growth.

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