BYD lifts 2026 overseas sales outlook to 1.8 million, its second raise this year

BYD (HKG: 1211) now expects to sell 1.8 million vehicles outside China in 2026, up from the 1.3 million it projected at the start of the year. Li Yunfei, general manager of BYD's brand and public relations department, gave the figure in recent remarks to media, published on November 9, 2026.

It is the second time BYD has raised the goal this year. After its 2025 results, chairman Wang Chuanfu told institutional investors in Hong Kong on March 30 that the 2026 target was 1.5 million or even higher. The new outlook is about 38% above the January figure and 20% above the March one.

Li set the number against BYD's recent climb. Overseas sales rose from just over 50,000 in 2022 to more than 200,000 in 2023, more than 400,000 in 2024 and, in Li's rounded figure, 1.04 million in 2025. They reached about 1.34 million in the first nine months of 2026. BYD's 2025 overseas total was 1,049,600, up 145% from 2024 and 22.7% of its sales that year.

BYD's own October release put sales of passenger cars and pickups outside China at 169,564 for the month, up 103% from a year earlier. For January to October, the company reported 1,507,395 overseas sales, or 41.62% of the group's 3,621,744 vehicles sold in the period. That share is nearly double the 2025 level.

The 100,000th vehicle from BYD's plant in Camaçari, Bahia, a Dolphin Mini, left the line on July 16, 2026 (BYD)

The monthly export count BYD files with the Hong Kong stock exchange shows how quickly volumes built up this year. NEV exports were 100,482 in January. Over January and February, exports totalled 201,000, up 42.3% from a year earlier and more than half of BYD's total sales in those two months. Monthly exports then rose to 180,538 in July and reached a 2026 high of 189,466 in August.

Since then, the pace has eased. Exports slipped to 180,700 in September and 170,194 in October, the second straight monthly decline. Year-on-year growth in overseas sales also cooled, from 134% in August to 110% in September and 102% in October.

Overall, the picture is weaker. BYD's NEV sales for the first ten months fell 2.16% to 3,621,744 from 3,701,852 a year earlier, even though October alone rose to 490,168 from 441,706. In 2025, BYD's domestic sales fell 8% to 3,558,000 while overseas sales more than doubled.

Wang has said local manufacturing and a global flash-charging network give BYD a deep moat overseas, and that it eventually wants domestic and overseas markets to each account for half of its sales. In March he also pointed to a jump in demand in some markets as the Middle East situation pushed up oil prices, saying that in Australia, New Zealand and the Philippines a single day of sales now matched what used to take two weeks.

BYD launched its second-generation Blade battery and flash charging in early March, claiming a charge from 10% to 97% in nine minutes. Wang said the technology would be rolled out widely around the world in 2027.

Local production is the other half of that pitch. BYD's plant in Camaçari, Brazil, built its 100,000th vehicle on July 16, 2026, and had more than 5,500 staff at the time. In March, executive vice president Stella Li said the plant had won export orders for 100,000 vehicles from Argentina and Mexico. BYD Brazil also wants half the parts in its locally built cars to be made or sourced in the country by the end of 2026, and aims to be Brazil's top-selling carmaker by 2030.

Elsewhere, BYD's plant in Thailand had delivered 90,000 vehicles by March, and ground had been broken on a plant in Cambodia. Hungary is running later. Management told Daiwa Securities that the Hungarian plant will start production by the end of 2026. In March, BYD had said that plant was scheduled to start production in the second quarter of the year.

Staff and guests at BYD's Camaçari plant mark the site's 100,000th vehicle; the plant had more than 5,500 employees at the time (BYD)

Profit per car is the other goal. Management guided overseas net profit of about 20,000 CNY (c. $2,980) per vehicle and said it was confident of reaching that in 2026, Daiwa wrote. Facing higher raw-material and currency costs, BYD said it would not raise prices on existing models, but would add features, refresh its lineup and reprice the overall portfolio.

Premium models are part of the push. In the Middle East, BYD recently opened pre-sales for the Yangwang Altior sedan, the most expensive model it has ever offered by pre-sale price, with a limited edition estimated at about 2 million CNY (c. $297,800) and a 300,000 CNY (c. $44,700) deposit. Deliveries are planned for the second quarter of 2027.

BYD's November filing, due in early December, will show whether exports turn back up toward August's 189,466. The outlook now assumes they will keep growing, so will that third straight month of decline be avoided?

Conversion rate: 1 USD = 6.7167 CNY as of November 10, 2026.