BYD Co. (HKG: 1211), Chery Automobile Co. and Geely Holding are targeting consumer vehicle sales in Canada before the end of 2026, with certification work and retail network development already underway, according to DSMA, a buy-sell and advisory firm brokering discussions between Chinese manufacturers and Canadian dealers.

"We expect the vehicles will start landing by the end of this year," Jason Zhao, director of Asian market development at DSMA, told Automotive News. None of the three brands is ready to begin shipments immediately, Zhao said, with months of certification work still ahead.

The push follows a landmark trade deal struck on January 16, 2026, in which Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney agreed, during a state visit to Beijing, to lower tariffs on Chinese-made EVs from 106.1% — a rate imposed in October 2024 — to the most-favoured-nation rate of 6.1%. In exchange, China reduced tariffs on Canadian canola and other agricultural products. Global Affairs Canada opened the import permit process on March 1, 2026, distributing permits on a first-come, first-served basis.

The quota structure allows 24,500 Chinese-made EVs to enter between March 1 and August 31, 2026, with a second tranche of equal size covering September 2026 through February 2027. The total annual quota of 49,000 units is set to rise to 70,000 by 2030, with a requirement that more than half of imported vehicles be priced below C$35,000 (c. $25,700) by then.

BYD has moved the fastest on regulatory groundwork. The company registered its passenger vehicle manufacturing plants in Shenzhen and Xi'an with Transport Canada's Appendix G preclearance registry — the first Chinese automaker to do so for consumer vehicles. Those plants produce the Seal, Dolphin, Atto 3 and Seagull, the last of which is marketed as the Dolphin Surf in Europe.

BYD has also operated a 45,000-square-foot electric bus assembly plant in Newmarket, Ontario since 2019, supplying vehicles to the Toronto Transit Commission, giving it an existing Canadian corporate and operational footprint ahead of any passenger car launch.

Chery has been the most visible in pre-entry signalling despite not yet appearing in the Appendix G registry. Recruiters working on behalf of the Wuhu-based automaker began approaching Canadian auto industry professionals on LinkedIn in January about roles covering vehicle engineering, electrical architecture, intelligent driving and regulatory certification, with messages specifically referencing the Omoda and Jaecoo sub-brands.

Chery also filed Canadian trademark applications last year for several sub-brands, including Exeed, iCar, Jaecoo, Lepas, Luxeed and Omoda & Jaecoo. The company sold more than 2.8 million passenger cars in 2025, of which over 900,000 were new energy vehicles, and has set a 2026 sales target of 3.2 million units. Industry Minister Mélanie Joly met with Chery executives during Carney's January Beijing visit, naming the automaker alongside BYD as among the companies with which she held discussions.

Geely Holding's entry confirmation is the newest of the three. The conglomerate trademarked its premium electric brand Zeekr in Canada in 2025, as first reported by Automotive News. Geely already operates in Canada through its Swedish-branded subsidiaries Volvo and Polestar — both of which previously shipped China-manufactured vehicles to Canada before the 100% tariff took effect — but its own nameplate has not been confirmed for the market until now.

Neither Geely nor its sub-brands Zeekr and Lynk & Co appear in Transport Canada's Appendix G registry as of early March, confirming that homologation remains the primary bottleneck across all three groups.

Demo units are reportedly projected to arrive by mid-2026, with limited retail availability late in the year in Quebec and British Columbia, where EV adoption rates are highest. Brands with vehicles already certified to North American safety and emissions standards — including Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), Volvo and Polestar — hold a shorter path to first deliveries under the new quota framework.

The entry of Chinese OEMs into Canada has drawn sharp domestic opposition. Ontario Premier Doug Ford labeled Chinese EVs "spy vehicles" and called for a consumer boycott, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre described them as "roving surveillance systems." Unifor, Canada's largest private-sector union, said the arrangement "puts Canadian auto jobs at risk" and warned that Ottawa had surrendered negotiating leverage with Washington.

Tu Le, managing director of consulting firm Sino Auto Insights, said the worst-case scenario is that GM and Ford "effectively lose the Canadian market," describing Canada's move as the first domino falling ahead of broader North American pressure on established brands.

The trade framework also requires Chinese automakers to establish joint ventures for vehicles or batteries within Canada within three years — a condition Ottawa says will generate new manufacturing employment, and one that critics say lacks enforceable specifics.

China's automobile exports reached a record 7.098 million units in 2025, a 21.1% year-on-year increase, with new energy vehicle exports totalling 2.615 million units — more than double the prior year. Canada's 49,000-unit cap represents a fraction of that outbound volume, but its symbolic weight as the first structured opening of a North American consumer market to Chinese-branded passenger EVs is already reshaping conversations in Detroit and Washington.

Whether the three automakers can convert months of preparatory work into vehicles on Canadian lots before the year ends remains a question of regulatory pace as much as commercial will.